tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-205656002024-03-07T15:37:56.989-08:00Entrepreneurship BlogAn attempt to demystify the process of raising capital, democratize information and help entrepreneurs improve their businesses by avoiding the mistakes that I've already made... and occasionally include a personal post because Rich told me to.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.comBlogger226125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-62409049285271460952013-05-29T00:19:00.000-07:002013-05-29T00:22:47.960-07:00Sunset at Dillon Beach<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilqR0IaV3dEbsE1mTnoNm1jt-m_N1CcxNWHLQ2gD0Ml7zAHLQLpWD1-8D0r1AgKGLbDLBjH6xgwUixrLdHok529e5-ncCw1LjH9SwT97_EOXFAExWTCPzlTbJwEVaK373yLAqS-Q/s1600/Dillon+Beach+Sunset+May+2013.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilqR0IaV3dEbsE1mTnoNm1jt-m_N1CcxNWHLQ2gD0Ml7zAHLQLpWD1-8D0r1AgKGLbDLBjH6xgwUixrLdHok529e5-ncCw1LjH9SwT97_EOXFAExWTCPzlTbJwEVaK373yLAqS-Q/s400/Dillon+Beach+Sunset+May+2013.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-8688654741886872812010-08-27T18:00:00.000-07:002010-08-27T18:08:28.017-07:00Lessons About Not Getting AcquiredWow, very interesting post by Gleb over at <a href="http://www.backblaze.com">Backblaze</a> about <a href="http://blog.backblaze.com/2010/08/27/backblaze-online-backup-almost-acquired-breaking-down-the-breakup/">the ups and downs of almost getting acquired</a>. If you work at or are interested in startups, it really is a must read.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-30558216791971202182010-05-28T20:12:00.000-07:002010-05-28T20:37:44.381-07:00Double Your Money w/Google? ...I doubt it<a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/05/26/BU4N1DKCE0.DTL">Google recently claimed to have generated $54B in economic activity</a> last year in the United States. In coming up with this figure, one of their assumptions was that for every $1 spent on AdWords advertisers generated $2 in sales. I just don't buy that. There are way too many crappy ad campaigns out there, often without even an action on the landing page. The prospective customer is going to have to be pretty proactive if they don't have a clear action to take. Most advertising just seems sloppy and I suspect has a negative ROI on average.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-90698662471113623402010-05-19T12:54:00.000-07:002010-05-19T13:06:06.987-07:00Maybe its Pitching from the Stretch?In a post earlier this month, I wondered <a href="http://andrewbfife.blogspot.com/2010/05/interesting-baseball-question.html">Why does batting average go down by number of outs in an inning?</a> Since the average plate appearances must go up with each out, the likelihood of having runners on base must go up as well. If pitchers are more effective pitching from the stretch, which they do with runners on base, that would explain the decline in batting average. I'll have to poke around the web and see I can get ERA, WHIP and opponents batting stats for pitcher in the stretch vs. the full wind up. <br /><br />If they are better, I wonder if we'll ever pitchers pitching from the stretch exclusively. I know Lincecum recently pitched from the stretch w/o runners on base, but that had more to do with him finding his mechanics in a game where he felt out of rhythm.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-83901688988840745152010-05-18T15:48:00.000-07:002010-05-18T16:40:18.589-07:00Home Microcell Towers... No ThanksOver the past several months I've gotten a number of promotions from AT&T touting their microcell devices, which are designed to improve cell phone reception in a small areas such as a home or office. AT&T service on my iPhone is terrible in my house, which is an annoying problem that I'd like to solve. However, these microcell offers are kind of irritating.<br /><br />Ultimately, health is my biggest concern with the microcell. If standard cell towers have been linked to cancer, why would I want a miniature one in my home? I don't know much about the health issues, but they do linger in the back of my mind regarding microcells. <br /><br />As a frustrated customer, I feel like poor coverage is AT&T's problem and the microcell solution is an effort to position network holes as my responsibility to fix. I'm generally a results oriented person (or at least try to be) so the blame game wouldn't normally be that important to me, but these feelings are exacerbated by AT&T seemingly attempting to make money off my patching of their network.<br /><br />AT&T will sell me the microcell device for $150. If I'm not mistaken the device works by broadcasting a cell signal that is converted into VOIP. This means that the microcell is using my networks' bandwidth. While I certainly don't use all of my bandwidth all the time, VOIP is bandwidth intensive and call quality quickly degrades when it gets tight, so in addition to the cost of the device, I may need to buy more bandwidth. <br /><br />If the microcell is offloading traffic from AT&T cell towers near my home to my home network, shouldn't my calls be free? Well, only if you pay $20/mo for unlimited microcell calling. I guess I don't mind using minutes from existing plan, but, for me, an extra $20/mo would never work out as a good value considering that most of my calls at home are nights and weekends anyway. <br /><br />Maybe I'm being a little harsh on AT&T with this last point, but $20/mo really feels like they are trying to profit from their network problem. If I'm going to be forced to buy the device for $150, go through the hassle of setting it up in my home, risk getting cancer from it and provide bandwidth I want the unlimited microcell minutes to clearly be an outstanding value. Free would of course be ideal, but I could probably be satisfied with $5/mo. If <a href="http://www.magicjack.com">MagicJack</a> can provide unlimited VOIP calling for $20/year, I definitely don't think AT&T should be charging $20/mo.<br /><br />Admittedly, I don't know what AT&T's costs are on providing microcells, but it feels more like a profit-center than a loss-leader to me. Customers that need microcells are probably unhappy with their AT&T service. Microcells could be great customer retention tool, but getting bombarded with marketing materials asking me to spend money to fix their problem is just building more frustration on my end.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-6030718992527887102010-05-03T01:35:00.000-07:002010-05-03T01:46:19.504-07:00Interesting Baseball QuestionWhy does batting average go down by number of outs in an inning? In <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=ML&year=2009&per162=1#outs">2009, MLB batting average by out</a> was:<br /><br />.271 - No Outs<br />.267 - 1 Out<br />.248 - 2 Outs<br /><br />I thought maybe it was a fluke, but in <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=ML&year=2008&per162=1#outs">2008 the splits were</a>:<br /><br />.275 - No Outs<br />.267 - 1 out<br />.249 - 2 Outs<br /><br />and <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=ML&year=2007&per162=1#outs">2007</a>:<br /><br />.276 - No Outs<br />.273 - 1 out<br />.254 - 2 Outs<br /><br />I really have no idea why hitters do so much worse with two outs. Concentration comes to mind, but wouldn't that play equally to pitcher and hitters?Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-32671439033782575322010-04-29T22:41:00.000-07:002010-05-03T01:34:58.800-07:00Are You Our Sea Otter Winner?<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.seaotterclassic.com/"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 162px; height: 125px;" src="http://www.seaotterclassic.com/webart/logo2009.png" alt="" border="0" /></a>A few weeks ago I attended the <a href="http://www.seaotterclassic.com/">Sea Otter Classic</a> biking festival. As a marketing guy, I'm always keeping my eye out for creative ways to get folks attention so I was pleased to get an email yesterday titled "<span style="font-style: italic;">Are You Our Sea Otter Winner?</span>" At the festival, I had signed up for a raffle with <a href="http://www.cogwild.com/">Cog Wild</a>, an <a href="http://www.cogwild.com/Multi-Day-Tours/default.aspx">Oregon mountain biking</a> tour company, and having run expo booths at IT conferences, I know the challenge of <a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.cogwild.com/"><img style="float: right; margin: 0pt 0pt 10px 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 130px;" src="http://www.cogwild.com/ThemeImages/CogWild/Themes/Default/Cog-Wild-Bicycle-Tours-Bend-Oregon-1x3.gif" alt="" border="0" /></a>turning contacts collected into qualified leads. The conference attendees get carpet-bombed with marketing email by conference vendors after the event ends so its tough to make your company stand out. I was pretty sure that I wasn't the winner of Cog Wild's raffle, but with a teaser like "Are You Our Sea Otter Winner?" how could I not open the email to see?<br /><br />I've always felt that the subject line of a marketing email message is the most important part because its a go or no-go point for the recipient... if they don't open the message it doesn't matter how compelling the content is. I also liked that Cog Wild referenced Sea Otter in the subject line rather than themselves. To be honest, I probably wouldn't have remembered Cog Wild by name, but I did remember entering several raffles at the Sea Otter Classic so it was a smart and humble decision on their part that got me to their next step. Don't get me wrong, the subject line is just the first step -- the content and actions in the message body matter -- and the actual "Are You Our Sea Otter Winner?" copy could be refined, but I love the concept and will probably use it the next time I run a raffle at an expo booth.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-6186203894126452802009-12-19T16:16:00.000-08:002009-12-19T18:03:04.784-08:00Brian Sabean: Please don't Bring in Uggla, LaRoche, Beltre or DeRosaBrian Sabean just doesn't understand the concept of replacement value. Blowing through the Giants salary budget on mediocre veterans is the hallmark of his tenure as GM in San Francisco. Mid-level veteran free agents rarely offer good value because their production typically isn't much better than younger cheaper players. Unfortunately, Sabean is at it again this year.<br /><br />In his quest to improve the San Francisco Giants offense, Sabean has been consistently linked to Mark DeRosa, Adam LaRoche, Adrian Beltre and Dan Uggla in the hot stove rumor mills. While it would be nice to add some pop to the meat of the Giants lineup, none of these guys are worth bringing in because they just don't offer enough additional value beyond Travis Ishikawa.<br /><br />Ishikawa is younger, cheaper and plays gold glove caliber defense. By adding an extra 200 ABs to project a full season, Ishikawa would have produced 16 2Bs, 15HRs and 63 RBIs. Factor in the AT&T power drain into DeRosa, LaRoche Beltre or Uggla and they all project to about 70-80 RBIs and 17-23 HRs, which just isn't a big improvement over a full season of Ishikawa. Ishikawa makes $400K. Given the salary demands (and prospects in the case of trading for Uggla), how could anyone possibly justify any these players for such small incremental benefits? I guess old habbits die hard.<br /><br /><br /><style> <!--table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";} .font5 {color:windowtext; font-size:8.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Verdana; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-charset:0;} td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:windowtext; font-size:10.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Verdana; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;} .xl24 {text-align:right;} .xl25 {color:white; text-align:center; background:black; mso-pattern:auto none;} .xl26 {text-align:right; border-top:none; border-right:.5pt hairline windowtext; border-bottom:.5pt hairline windowtext; border-left:none;} .xl27 {text-align:center; 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border-right:none; border-bottom:none; border-left:.5pt hairline windowtext;} ruby {ruby-align:left;} rt {color:windowtext; font-size:8.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Verdana; mso-generic-font-family:auto; mso-font-charset:0; mso-char-type:none; display:none;} --> </style> <table style="border-collapse: collapse;" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="740"> <!--StartFragment--> <col style="" width="56"> <col style="" span="2" width="46"> <col style="" width="52"> <col style="" span="5" width="54"> <col style="" width="54"> <col style="" span="4" width="54"> <tbody><tr height="13"> <td class="xl24" height="13" width="56"><br /></td> <td class="xl25" width="46">Bats</td> <td class="xl25" width="46">Age</td> <td class="xl25" width="52">Salary</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">AB</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">2B</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">HR</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">RBI</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">Walks</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">SO</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">AVG</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">OBP</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">SLG</td> <td class="xl25" width="54">OPS</td> </tr> <tr height="13"> <td style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);" class="xl26" height="13">Ishikawa</td> <td style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255);" class="xl27"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">L</span><br /></td> <td class="xl27" num="26.0">26</td> <td class="xl27">400K</td> <td class="xl27" num="326.0">326</td> <td class="xl27" num="10.0">10</td> <td class="xl27" num="9.0">9</td> <td class="xl27" num="39.0">39</td> <td class="xl27" num="33.0">33</td> <td class="xl27" num="89.0">89</td> <td class="xl27" num="0.261">0.261</td> <td class="xl27" num="0.329">0.329</td> <td class="xl27" num="0.387">0.387</td> <td class="xl28" num="0.715">0.715</td> </tr> <tr height="13"> <td class="xl29" height="13">DeRosa</td> <td class="xl30">R</td> <td class="xl30" num="34.0">34</td> <td class="xl30">$6-7M*</td> <td class="xl30" num="515.0">515</td> <td class="xl30" num="23.0">23</td> <td class="xl30" num="23.0">23</td> <td class="xl30" num="78.0">78</td> <td class="xl30" num="48.0">48</td> <td class="xl30" num="121.0">121</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.25">0.250</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.319">0.319</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.433">0.433</td> <td class="xl31" num="0.752">0.752</td> </tr> <tr height="13"> <td class="xl29" height="13">LaRoche</td> <td class="xl30">L</td> <td class="xl30" num="30.0">30</td> <td class="xl30">$10.5M*</td> <td class="xl30" num="555.0">555</td> <td class="xl30" num="38.0">38</td> <td class="xl30" num="25.0">25</td> <td class="xl30" num="83.0">83</td> <td class="xl30" num="81.0">81</td> <td class="xl30" num="142.0">142</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.277">0.277</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.355">0.355</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.488">0.488</td> <td class="xl31" num="0.843">0.843</td> </tr> <tr height="13"> <td class="xl29" height="13">Uggla</td> <td class="xl30">R</td> <td class="xl30" num="29.0">29</td> <td class="xl30">$5.35M**</td> <td class="xl30" num="564.0">564</td> <td class="xl30" num="27.0">27</td> <td class="xl30" num="31.0">31</td> <td class="xl30" num="90.0">90</td> <td class="xl30" num="96.0">96</td> <td class="xl30" num="150.0">150</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.243">0.243</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.354">0.354</td> <td class="xl30" num="0.459">0.459</td> <td class="xl31" num="0.813">0.813</td> </tr> <tr height="13"> <td class="xl32" height="13">Beltre</td> <td class="xl33">R</td> <td class="xl33" num="30.0">30</td> <td class="xl33">$10M*</td> <td class="xl33" num="449.0">449</td> <td class="xl33" num="27.0">27</td> <td class="xl33" num="8.0">8</td> <td class="xl33" num="44.0">44</td> <td class="xl33" num="20.0">20</td> <td class="xl33" num="74.0">74</td> <td class="xl33" num="0.265">0.265</td> <td class="xl33" num="0.304">0.304</td> <td class="xl33" num="0.379">0.379</td> <td class="xl34" num="0.683">0.683</td> </tr> <!--EndFragment--> </tbody></table><br /><br />--<br />*Rumored salary demands<br />**Uggla earned $5.35M in '09 but will likely receive a raise from arbitrationAndrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-82667655342007039562009-12-18T11:45:00.000-08:002009-12-18T12:37:30.328-08:00Free MiniDV Conversion From KinKastA couple friends of mine, Raul and Tom, recently started <a href="http://www.kinkast.com/">KinKast</a>, a family video-sharing website. KinKast was designed for parents to make privately sharing video memories as-easy-as-123 with some neat features that minimize the need to edit footage.<br /><br />In order to drum-up some initial awareness KinKast has an offer you really can't refuse: <a href="http://www.kinkast.com/holiday">Free MiniDV conversion</a>. Once the tapes are converted to .mp4, they can be downloaded from <a href="http://www.kinkast.com">KinKast.com</a>. KinKast is also throwing in 6 months free of their video hosting and sharing service so after the MiniDVs are converted, they can be easily and privately shared grandma, grandpa and Uncle Joe. <br /> <br />I gotta give Raul and Tom their props, there really are no catches with this offer...<br /><ul><li>No commitment to buy anything<br /></li><li>No credit card required<br /></li><li>No annoying accounts you have to remember to cancel<br /></li><li>KinKast even pays to ship your MiniDV tapes back to you </li></ul>Of course, they hope you'll love KinKast enough that you'll want to continue using their hosting/sharing service beyond the free 6 months, but they aren't trying to trick anyone into buying something they don't really want. Anyone whose got family memories trapped gathering dust in MiniDV tapes, would be crazy not to take advantage of this offer.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-40470401251096941752009-12-17T22:11:00.000-08:002009-12-17T22:49:44.656-08:00Dan Uggla is Pedro Feliz<a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=fla&playerID=462564">Dan Uggla</a> won't help the Giants. Although the Gigantes clearly need to improve their offense, they would generate more wins from consistent hitters rather than a power bat. The Giants pitching is so good that consistently manufacturing 2-3 runs will win a lot of games. Uggla hits about 1 HR per week. How many games is that going to win? <br /><br />To make matters worse, HRs are expensive and the Giants don't have the budgets to bid with the big boys so it imperative that <a href="http://andrewbfife.blogspot.com/2009/12/sabeans-wasted-52m.html">Brian Sabean spends smarter</a>. <br /><br />What Uggla brings to the table is some pop (31 HRs) and the ability to draw walks, but don't confuse that for plate discipline... he struck out 150 times last year. Furthermore, Uggla absolutely cannot hit left handed pitching, his terrible .243 batting average falls to .225 with runners in scoring position and an abysmal .153 in late innings of close games. Now, about those HRs... Uggla hit twice as many at home as he did on the road, which won't translate well at the pitcher friendly AT&T Park. In fact, if one figures AT&T Park takes 5-10 HRs from Uggla his numbers start to look a lot like <a href="http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_stats_player.jsp?c_id=hou&playerID=150268">Pedro Feliz</a> from 2004-7.<br /><br />The Giants wouldn't even offer a contract to Pedro Feliz so why does it make any sense to trade a prospect for Uggla?Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-62465556471182223592009-12-17T21:09:00.001-08:002009-12-17T22:38:48.209-08:00Sabean's Wasted $52MIts very frustrating that Brian Sabean got a new 2 year contract at the end of the season. As the sum of many years of terrible signings, Sabean spent 59% of the <a href="http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p4ew-fwu2XT1HXvmS0G6qaA">Giants 2009 payroll</a> ($88M) on the following players:<br /><br />$18.5M - Barry Zito<br />$9.6M - Aaron Rowand<br />$9.25M - Randy Winn <br />$8M - Edgar Renteria<br />$6M - Dave Roberts<br /><br />And what did the Giants get? Well, Zito looked solid for a back of the rotation starter, which sadly is a win these days, but the hitters averaged a combined .257 avg, 7 HRs and 54 RBIs and 95 strikeouts.<br /><br />To put this in perspective, if Sabean hadn't wasted the $52M the Giants could have signed all 3 of this years top free agents: John Lackey ($16.5M), Matt Holliday ($16M) and Jason Bay ($16M). Giants fans complain that ownership doesn't spend enough on player salaries but clearly that isn't the real problem. <br /><br />Come to think of it Sabean's best signing was probably Omar Vizquel who was 38 at the time.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-9637024409891094152009-12-16T18:12:00.000-08:002009-12-16T23:34:03.254-08:00Does Wall Street Really Need More Regulation?Obama recently said on 60 minutes that <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5975092n">Wall Street's irresponsibility caused the financial meltdown and therefore financial regulation is necessary</a> to prevent additional crises. This might be true, but there are scenarios were it isn't.<br /><br />For example, if the late-90's financial deregulation accelerated growth rates, its possible that 10 years later the increased gains are larger than the losses from the crash. In other words, if deregulation increased growth rates from 1% to 6.5%, but also led to a 40% crash after 10 years, the overall growth achieved would be about equal. Presumably then, deregulation (and its crashes) would be the better option if it pushed growth above 6.5%.<br /><br />Personally, I have no idea how much deregulation accelerated growth and its definitely possible that regulation in response to the '08 financial meltdown could be smart and targeted enough to find a better middle ground of some increased growth with fewer crashes. However, its equally possible that exaggerated boom-and-bust cycles are an unavoidable reality of globalization. Furthermore, with markets having rallied dramatically since March, the crash downsides don't seem as bad today as they did last year.<br /><br />There is little doubt that TARP helped avoid a full-blown meltdown, that government stimulus dollars aided the stock market recovery (though to what degree won't be clear for years) and that a double-dip is still possible. However, from where we stand today, the S&P500 is only down 15% since its August '08 pre-meltdown value, which suggests that governance* worked on some level. If the old system succeeded enough to pull the economy back from the brink, its less clear what new regulations might be beneficial. <br /><br />The point of this post is not to argue against Wall Street regulation, but rather to demonstrate that the issue is not clear cut and that a crash doesn't always mean regulation is the right solution. However, what is really scary is that American politicians don't seem to be considering any of these possibilities or even comprehending the issue at a basic level. Unfortunately, the increasing complexity of economic issues, such as financial regulations, makes it virtually impossible for voters to hold elected officials responsible, which is as big a threat as democracy has ever faced.<br /><br />*Governance is both formal and informal, which isn't the same as government/regulation, which is inherently formalAndrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-78512077854768746972009-12-14T23:53:00.000-08:002009-12-15T02:02:22.245-08:00Beat the Eagles and 49ers Make the PlayoffsThe 49ers victory over the Arizona Cardinals was huge this evening. Combined with the Giants loss to the Eagles last night, the 49ers hopes of making the playoffs are much brighter than they appear at first glance. In the NFL, the cards don't often fall the way they are supposed to, but if the 49ers can pull of an upset against Philly, and favorites win out in the Giants, Cowboys and Falcons games the Niners nab the last wildcard slot into the playoffs. Here is how...<br /><br /><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cardinals</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> (Remaining schedule: Lions, Rams & Packers)<br />The 49ers NFC West hopes are finished. The head-to-head sweep gives the Cardinals the tie-breaker, which means they have to go 0-3 for the 49ers to have a chance at catching them and there's no way Arizona loses to both the Lions and the Rams. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected Finish: 10-6</span></span><span style="font-size:100%;"> </span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">49ers</span></span> <span style="font-size:100%;">(Remaining schedule: Eagles, Lions & Rams)<br />The 49ers need to win their remaining 3 games. If they don't, its game over. That said, of their 3 games, with the Rams and Lions a combined 3-23, the Eagles are the only difficult opponent left. If the 49ers beat the Eagles they should beat the Lions and Rams too.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected Finish: 9-7<span style="font-weight: bold;"><br /><br /></span></span></span><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Cowboys</span></span> <span style="font-size:100%;">(Remaining schedule: Saints, Redskins, & Eagles)<br /></span>If the season ended today, the Cowboys 8 wins would claim the final NFC wild card spot, however, they are notoriously bad in December and their schedule is probably the most difficult of any of the teams in the playoff hunt. The Cowboys should be favored against the Redskins but they will be big underdogs against the Saints and the Eagles. The Saints and Eagles are both pretty much in the playoffs so they may begin to ease off the gas pedal, but luckily for the 49ers, the Saints, who still need a win to lock-up home field advantage, play the Cowboys next week. While the Eagles will likely have locked up the NFC East by the last week in the season, when they face the Cowboys, they may still have seeding on the line. The difference between 3 vs. 4 seeding in the playoffs only has home-field advantage implications if the 3 and 4 seeds meet in the NFC Championship game but on the other hand the Cowboys just don't ever seem to win the games they need to in the Tony Romo era.<br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected Finish: 9-7</span><br /><br /><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Giants</span></span> <span style="font-size:100%;">(Remaining schedule: Redskins, Panthers & Vikings)<br /></span>At 7-6, the Giants currently sit one game ahead of the 49ers, but their 5-0 start masks their 2-6 performance since. For 49ers fans, the Vikings game at the end of the season is scary. Its really hard to see the Vikings playing the aging Brett Farve much if they have nothing on the line and being 2 games behind the Saints and 2 games ahead of the Eagles, they are virtually assured of the 2nd seed. But since this all predicated on a little luck and the favorites winning out...<br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected Finish: 9-7<br /><br /></span></span><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Falcons</span></span> <span style="font-size:100%;">(Remaining schedule: Jets, Bills & Bucs)<br /></span>At 6-6, the Falcons are effectively 1 game ahead of the 49ers because they won the head-to-head game. The Falcons have 3 winnable games left, but with Matt Ryan's turf toe injury status uncertain, its difficult to predict how they'll do. With the Jets still firmly in the AFC playoff hunt and Matt Ryan's injury its easy to see how New York could be favored. That said, the Falcons will likely be favored against the 5-8 Bills and the 1-12 Bucs regardless of Ryan's status.<br /><span style="font-size:100%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">Projected Finish: 8-8<br /><br /><span style="font-size:180%;">Final Wild Card Standings<br /></span></span></span><ol><li><span style="font-size:100%;">49ers (9-7)</span></li><li><span style="font-size:100%;">Giants (9-7)</span></li><li>Cowboys (9-7)</li><li>Falcons (8-8)</li></ol><span style="font-size:180%;"><span style="font-weight: bold;">How the 49ers Win the Tie-Breakers</span></span><br />According the <a href="http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures">NFL playoff tie-breaking procedures</a>, a 49ers, Giants & Cowboys 3-way tie would be determined in the following order:<br /><ol><li>Giants eliminate Cowboys through the first divisional tie-breaker of having won both head-to-head match-ups. </li><li>The 49ers eliminate the Giants by having a higher in conference winning percentage. The 49ers 8-4 NFC record barely squeaks by the Giants at 7-4.<br /></li></ol>Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-23796457544694143312009-09-20T10:17:00.000-07:002009-09-20T10:40:11.237-07:00Why is Boise State ahead of USC in the Polls?Boise State is #8 in <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/polls">the current AP poll</a>. They could easily go undefeated with only 1 quality win (Oregon) on <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/schedules/team/2009/boise-state-broncos/">their schedule</a>. The problem with the BCS is not its process, but rather the voter mentality that enables Boise State to move up in the polls after wins over low quality opponents. Does anyone believe that Boise State is better than USC, Ohio State, Virgina Tech or Oklahoma? If not, why is Boise State ranked higher than them? Teams in non-BCS conferences just don't face the week-in-week-out competition that SEC, Pac-10 or Big-10 do. For example, if Boise State and USC both win out, Boise State would likely go BCS championship game instead of USC. Yet, USC will have played <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/schedules/team/2009/usc-trojans/">10 quality opponents</a> to Boise State's 1. <br /><br />Teams that play in the WAC, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Conference USA should be explicitly banned from competing in BCS bowls because no matter how difficult of a non-conference schedule they play, having 8 conference games simply makes their schedules too weak to take a BCS bid away from an SEC or Pac-10 team with 1 or even 2 losses. Any football team playing in a non-BCS conference that wants to compete for the national championship should only become eligible if they go independent and schedule at least 8 opponents from BCS conferences or join an existing BCS conference.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-60658928860348643472009-09-17T11:29:00.000-07:002009-09-17T12:34:59.025-07:00Obama's Tire Tariff Smacks of Special InterestBarack Obama won the election on a platform of change with particular reference toward minimizing the role of special interests in politics and he did some great work early in his term to <a href="http://andrewbfife.blogspot.com/2009/01/auspicious-start.html">reduce the influence of lobbyists</a>, but whats up with his recent decision to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/12/business/global/12tires.html">impose a 35% tariff on Chinese tire imports?</a><br /><br />The <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/15/business/15labor.html">AFL-CIO and the United Steelworkers pushed for the tariff</a> but the<a href="http://www.tireindustry.org/news.asp"> Tire Industry Association (TIA) strongly opposed it.</a> Shouldn't the TIA have more say in tire trade than the AFL-CIO or the United Steelworkers? The issue isn't 100% clear cut because the the United Steelworkers do represent some tire factory workers and some of the tire manufacturers did want protection, but it sure seems like the special interests won at the expense of the general public.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-70469854578994634032009-09-15T21:59:00.000-07:002009-09-16T10:33:15.501-07:00An Idea for Bank Pay ReformIn general government regulation hurts economic growth. However, there are circumstances where minimal controls may be necessary. Wage controls and banking/trading are particularly tricky because bankers and traders can easily evade national regulation by moving to foreign firms while still operating in domestic markets. Despite the public outrage at Wall Street, its not entirely clear if pay regulation is necessary, but if it is, here are a couple ideas on how to approach it.<br /><br />First, lets clarify that the goal of any regulation should not be to punish. It doesn't matter how much bankers and traders earn relative to the general public or that they may be perceived as overpaid. Everyone loses if regulation disincentives economic growth so there is no point in capping pay if the goal is assuaging the public.<br /><br />The goal of any regulation should be to add stability to the system without dampening growth. In this case the goal of pay regulation should be to more closely align the banker/trader's interests with the long term success of the firm they work for. The problem with compensation is not how much is made, but rather how its made.<br /><br />The problem in a nutshell is that system rewards individuals for taking outlandish risks without much downsides. Barney Frank calls it "Heads I win, Tails you lose." For example:<br /><br />Year 1: Trader nets $100M for the bank and receives a $3M bonus<br />Year 2: Trader looses $200M for the bank and gets fired<br /><br />Net-net, the trader has lost $100M for the bank but got paid a handsome $3M over a 2 year period and while s/he was fired, finding a new job probably won't be too difficult. Heck, even if takes them 2 more years to get a job they'll still average $750K per year in compensation over the total 4 year period. Thus, it really doesn't matter how much of the bank's money a trader looses over the course of his/her career so long has s/he has a couple good ones to lock in multi-million dollar bonuses. Thus the individual is rewarded for destabilizing the system by gambling with the banks money in order to maximize their personal compensation. <br /><br />An outright compensation cap would be problematic because it wouldn't reward those that go above and beyond and could lead top talent to flee to unregulated foreign banks. However, shifting compensation above and beyond a certain level from cash to stock grants on a vesting schedule would align the banker/trader with the long-term interests of the bank that s/he works for. By putting the excess bonus into a stock grant the banker/trader would be motivated to maximize the value of his/her firm's equity and by putting the grant on a vesting schedule the interests could be aligned over a number of years. <br /><br />Its tough to say exactly at what level the cash bonus cap would be most effective or over how many years the vesting schedule should be. Getting it wrong could be ineffective and/or lead to talent flight. However, a $1.5M cash cap and a 3 year vesting schedule seems like good starting points for discussion purposes. While many analyst/associate level bankers make bonuses that are below the $1.5M level, the managing directors that they report to (and who ultimately decide the analyst/associate bonuses) will be effected by the compensation plan and therefore highly motivated to run their departments with the goal of maximizing the firm's stock value.<br /><br />Going back to the two year scenario above, in year 1 the trader would get $1.5M in cash upfront and $1.5M worth of stock in his firm vesting over the next 3 years. In year 2 the trader is highly motivated to do what is right for the firm because if s/he is fired or leaves the firm for any reason a portion of the bonus will be lost. On the contrary, if the trader makes a positive contribution to the firm's growth, not only will they secure another great bonus in year 2, but they will also increase the value of the stock that they were granted in year 1.<br /><br />Mechanically, this could mean that large portions of what the bank would have paid in bonuses will now go into buying their own stock, which could provide a nice initial pop in stock price if the bonuses are large enough relative to the firm's market cap. Although Wall Street will likely resist any wage controls, this could be a motivating factor to get on board with pay regulation.<br /><br />One downside to this plan is that the stock vesting schedule would decrease financial industry labor flexibility because moving firms would always leave 2-3 years worth of grants on the table. An approach to this problem could be enabling hiring banks to offer a hiring bonus of equivalent value (or a fraction of) in their own stock on the same schedule as the unvested portion of the banker/trader's grants at the old firm. A fraction would probably be best in order to discourage taking outlandish risks and then simply moving banks before the shit-hits-the-fan.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-87735885998858937592009-09-13T21:41:00.000-07:002009-09-13T22:26:44.604-07:00Obama Speaks but will Bill Maher Listen?Earlier this evening on 60 Minutes Barack Obama said:<br /><blockquote>"In the era of 24 hour cable news cycles that the loudest shrillest voices get the most attention... And so one of the things that I'm trying to figure out is how can we make sure that civility is interesting... And that hopefully I will be a good model for the fact that you don't have to yell and holler to make your point and to be passionate about your position."<br /></blockquote>Hopefully this is a wake up call to fans of Bill Maher, John Stewart and Steven Colbert. Although rarely subjected to the same level of criticism, their influence degrades the quality of political discussion equally as much as their more notorious conservative counterparts, Rush Limbaugh and Michael Savage. Everyone could benefit from taking more time to understand the complex issues that we face today and the manipulations, sound bites, jokes and polarization that these pundits rely on are not helpful. Lets turn them all off and pickup a newspaper instead.<br /><br /><embed src="http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/player-dest.swf" flashvars="linkUrl=http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=5307949n&tag=contentMain;cbsCarousel&releaseURL=http://cnettv.cnet.com/av/video/cbsnews/atlantis2/player-dest.swf&videoId=50076926&partner=news&vert=News&autoPlayVid=false&name=cbsPlayer&allowScriptAccess=always&wmode=transparent&embedded=y&scale=noscale&rv=n&salign=tl" allowfullscreen="true" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" pluginspage="http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer" height="324" width="425"></embed>Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-46845085862641279992009-08-05T23:57:00.000-07:002009-08-06T00:35:00.892-07:00Taxes Paid by Income Level<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://www.american.com/graphics/2007/november/Guess%20Who%20Really%20Pays%20the%20Taxes.jpg"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 385px; height: 268px;" src="http://www.american.com/graphics/2007/november/Guess%20Who%20Really%20Pays%20the%20Taxes.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a>Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-14331441535380025372009-07-31T15:10:00.001-07:002009-07-31T15:12:45.881-07:00Land's End<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqD8pP0jMxDA15meOJ1DPfPtNmy1-u9PEea4TBEWbNxsgTLsDsrmwBODILmkZ22LzLpcLFsv4YLdw58XtTOCAj0yXeGncK2oHYhLxEIWTXhEZ6jMePfTpo0AdMRVwqYp_gjbB9Ng/s1600-h/Lands-End-Jump.JPG"><img style="cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqD8pP0jMxDA15meOJ1DPfPtNmy1-u9PEea4TBEWbNxsgTLsDsrmwBODILmkZ22LzLpcLFsv4YLdw58XtTOCAj0yXeGncK2oHYhLxEIWTXhEZ6jMePfTpo0AdMRVwqYp_gjbB9Ng/s400/Lands-End-Jump.JPG" border="0" alt=""id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5364750550676166738" /></a>Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-19476779608058988912009-03-21T17:49:00.000-07:002009-03-21T17:58:56.331-07:00iPhone is my bookshop killerI really do love having local bookshops. Keplers in Menlo Park is definitely a favorite. But I really don't like paying full price when Amazon seems to sell most books at 40% off. I have an Amazon prime account and now that I have the Amazon app for my iPhone, it's just too easy and cheap to buy books. I hate to admit this, but I've started browsing in local shops and buying from my Amazon right there in the shop. It's the best of both worlds for me but kinda shitty for the local shops that I do want to support. I'm not sure how I'm going to reconcile this one quite yet.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-6596808133841959672009-02-15T21:27:00.000-08:002009-02-15T21:38:13.265-08:00Buy American Clause<p>The inclusion of the "Buy American" clause demonstrates just how broken our political process is. Its amazing that congress leaned so little from the Great Depression. Protectionism doesn't work.</p><br /><br /><embed src='http://www.cbs.com/thunder/swf30can10cbsnews/rcpHolderCbs-3-4x3.swf' FlashVars='link=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Ecbsnews%2Ecom%2Fvideo%2Fwatch%2F%3Fid%3D4803915n&partner=news&vert=News&autoPlayVid=false&releaseURL=http://release.theplatform.com/content.select?pid=35NLj5voUYRdXA0Sq753W39wAwTPGtKc&name=cbsPlayer&allowScriptAccess=always&wmode=transparent&embedded=y&scale=noscale&rv=n&salign=tl' allowFullScreen='true' width='425' height='324' type='application/x-shockwave-flash' pluginspage='http://www.macromedia.com/go/getflashplayer'></embed><br/><a href='http://www.cbs.com'>Watch CBS Videos Online</a>Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-56044442738708595392009-01-25T00:33:00.000-08:002009-01-25T00:44:37.546-08:00Hourly Wage @ WalmartAccording to <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/25/business/25walmart.html?pagewanted=3&_r=1&hp">an NY Times</a> article, Walmart's average hourly rate for full-time employees is $10.83. Most people seem to believe that Walmart pays only minimum wage but apparently thats not true.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com39tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-89086109066565353072009-01-22T00:05:00.000-08:002009-01-22T00:19:41.124-08:00An Auspicious StartBarack Obama starting his first day in office by <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/22/us/politics/22obama.html?pagewanted=2">increasing government transparency and <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">erecting</span> barriers to lobbyists</a> was a great move. The more secrecy and the more lobbyists the more distorted the politics becomes. Now this could lead to <a href="http://andrewbfife.blogspot.com/2009/01/obama-status-quo.html">real change</a>.Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-60760344362736954162009-01-21T02:44:00.000-08:002009-01-21T02:54:25.584-08:00Best & Worst of Obama's Inauguration SpeechBarack Obama is unquestionably a fabulous speaker and while his election night speech was much better, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/20/us/politics/20text-obama.html?em">his inauguration speech</a> didn't disappoint. The best line from his speech was:<br /><blockquote><span style="font-style: italic;">"Our economy is badly weakened, a consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some but also our collective failure to make hard choices and prepare the nation for a new age."</span><br /></blockquote>And the worst:<br /><blockquote style="font-style: italic;">"Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms."</blockquote>...not only super cheesy but don't gathering clouds happen before raging storms rather than at the same time?Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20565600.post-86966521212742967222009-01-21T02:12:00.000-08:002009-01-21T02:33:22.458-08:00Obama & the Status QuoBarack Obama's inauguration represents "<span style="font-style: italic;">change</span>" in several important ways. However, it is equally important to recognize several key ways in which his election victory also represents the status quo:<br /><ol><li>The candidate that raised the most money won<br /></li><li>Charisma was exponentially more important than policy</li><li>Change was a key campaign promise of non-incumbents</li></ol>Andrew Fifehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10772469322384124366noreply@blogger.com0