Dophins Virtually Guarantee Unsuccessful Draft

In advance of this weekend's NFL Draft, the Miami Dolphins announced today that they had signed Michigan tackle Jake Long and will select him with the number one pick. Offensive and defensive line are the most important (and under appreciated) parts of any football team, so I like the pick in that sense. However, the reported $57.5M contract with $30M in guaranteed money makes Long the highest paid lineman in the league.

I'm excited about Jake Long, but the odds are really low that he'll become the best lineman in the league, so why make him the highest paid? Compared to the opportunity cost of signing veteran players with far less risk on the free agent market it just doesn't make any sense to risk a Robert Gallery or Tony Mandrich type bust when the salary cap makes dollars scarce in the NFL.

The #1 pick in the draft has negative value. The only time top draft picks have value is when the bigger fool theory kicks in and another team is willing to trade for it.